Wie unterschiedlich die Analysen ein- und desselben Ereignisses in der internationalen Presse ausfallen können, darauf hatten wir in dem Artikel „Perspektivenwechsel“ hingewiesen.
Hier die Kernsätze einiger neuer (und einander wieder völlig entgegengesetzter) Analysen zentralasiatischer Bündnisse und Konflikte, insbesondere im Zusammenhang mit der Lage in Georgien, Südossetien und Abchasien.
Update zu “Perspektivenwechsel”
1. “The West is engaged in a premature celebration of the death of the China-Russia relationship following Beijing's perceived lack of support for Moscow's intervention in Georgia. This is a misreading of China's evolution to normal ties with Russia after going though "honeymoon" and "divorce" periods over the past 60 years. It is the West that should be worried about its confrontational policies with Russia.”
Yu Bin, senior research fellow for the Shanghai Association of American Studies and professor of political science at Wittenberg University, Ohio, US.
2. “The Russian offensive in Georgia has been widely compared to the Soviets' imperial buildup under Joseph Stalin. The reverse is the case: Russia is now more alone, more alienated and hated among the republics of the former Soviet Union than at any time in Soviet and post-Soviet history. Allied with the collapse of the American imperial presence, this equates to an era of global anarchy.”
Dmitry Shlapentokh, PhD, is associate professor of history, College of Liberal Arts and Sciences, Indiana University South Bend. He is author of East Against West: The First Encounter - The Life of Themistocles, 2005.
3. “The Shanghai Cooperation Organization, or SCO, ought to boost its political clout in settling regional conflict in the immediate future. A statement to this effect was made earlier in the week by a group of the Russia-based noted analysts during a Moscow-Beijing video news conference. Aside from maintaining stability and security in Central Asia, the SCO’s vast potential will certainly make it possible for the organization to handle other pressing international problems.”
Lada Korotun, Korrespondentin der „Voice of Russia“.
Bei den folgenden Artikeln ist besonders zu beachten, in welchen Zeitschriften sie erschienen sind und wer die Leser dieser Zeitschriften sind:
4. "With Iran's declaration that it opposes the construction of any undersea pipelines in the Caspian on "ecological grounds" and thus will block any delimitation of the seabed that allows for them and Baku's decision not to back the West's push NABUCCO project, Moscow can claim its first major political victory from its invasion of Georgia. … That does not mean, of course, that Moscow now has effectively reestablished its control over the states of this region – all of them have other interests besides oil and gas – but it does mean that Russia has won a major victory and the West, which all too often in recent years has focused on oil and gas alone, has suffered a major defeat. … The geo-economic and geo-political shifts in the Caucasus as a result of Russian actions in Georgia were even more in evidence during US Vice President Dick Cheney's brief visit to the Azerbaijani capital. According to Russian media reports, it did not go well from either a protocol or a substantive perspective. … At one level, of course, all this reflects the continuation of President Aliyev's commitment to what he and his government call "a balanced foreign policy," one that seeks to navigate between Moscow and the West by avoiding offending either and seeking to develop strong ties with both. But at another, the way in which the Russian and Azerbaijani media have covered Vice President Cheney's visit suggests that if Baku's policy remains a balanced one, the balance is rather different than it was before Moscow demonstrated with its invasion of Georgia and its recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia that the game has changed."
Paul A. Goble, Formerly Professor, University of Tartu (Estonia), Senior Associate, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Special Advisor on Soviet Nationality Problems, U.S. Department of State, Analyst on Soviet Nationalities, Department of State’s Bureau of Intelligence and Research, Central Intelligence Agency.
5. "Russia has also put out feelers for the establishment of a global gas cartel, an idea that it has discussed with Venezuela, and which is certain to put cartel members on a collision course with the White House. Venezuela has also invited three prominent Russian companies to take over from their American counterparts Exxon Mobil and Conoco Philips. Further, according to China Daily, it [Venezuela] has agreed with Beijing on an energy initiative that would involve Russian oil and gas heading away from Europe toward Asia. Famous the world over for its chess players, Russia is becoming adept at petrocarbon politics, a game it appears to be winning. However, in this “game” the stakes are even higher than who gets what at which price. Russia is developing closer military and economic ties with China as well as military-technical ties with Syria. Moscow is also negotiating with Iran to set up a minimum of two military bases on its soil — one in Eastern Azerbaijan and the other on an Island in the Gulf — in return for accepting Iran into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which would guarantee Iran’s security in the face of external aggression. Such an alliance would not only threaten Western interests, but the fragile regional power balance would be substantially altered. … With the benefit of hindsight it’s hard to believe that European leaderships don’t regret disrespecting Russia at a time it was emerging from decades of darkness and could easily have been incorporated into the EU, NATO and the WTO."
Linda Heard is a writer, editor and Arabist, who has lived and worked for most of her life in the Middle East.
6. "Russia has not only scored an important diplomatic victory; it has driven a wedge between Europe and the United States. … Cheney's week-long trip to the Caucasus was organized with two objectives in mind; to isolate Russia from its allies in Europe and speed up Nato membership for Georgia and Ukraine. He has failed on both counts. … Russia's ties with Europe threaten to shatter the increasingly fragile Atlantic Alliance which is lashed together by G-7 banking cartel. If Europe sees a continuation of the same belligerent Bush unilateralism under the next US president, the popular backlash in Europe is likely to sever the Alliance once and for all plunging the United States into forced isolation. … If Cheney is serious about catching-up to Russia, he'll have to act fast. Unfortunately, Cheney is more disliked in Central Asia than he is in the USA where his public approval ratings have been well below sea-level for the last 4 years. … Washington has been out manoeuvred on every front by Russian businessmen who have learned to use the free market more effectively than their teachers in the US. … The EU prefers diplomacy over belligerence. As a result, Cheney has become increasingly irrelevant; a blustery sideshow that everyone ignores except the western media."
Mike Whitney , correspondent of Information Clearing House, specialises on economical themes.
Bhadrakumar schließlich macht auf einen weiteren Aspekt aufmerksam, den türkischen:
7. "Russian diplomacy is swiftly moving even as the troops have begun returning from Georgia to their barracks. Moscow is weaving a complicated new web of regional alliances, drawing deeply into Russia's collective historical memory as a power in the Caucasus and the Black Sea. … The timing of Lavrov's consultations in Turkey was noteworthy. US Vice President Dick Cheney happened to be in the region, visiting Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Georgia, drumming up anti-Russia animus. Turkey didn't figure in his itinerary. Moscow shrewdly estimated the need of political dynamism with regard to Turkey. … Suffice to say, Lavrov has done brilliantly by floating an idea to link Iraq and Iran with a Russo-Turkish regional framework on security and cooperation. … Lavrov drew comfort that "Turkey never places its commitments to NATO above its other international obligations, but always strictly follows all those obligations that it has in the totality. This is a very important trait not characteristic for all countries. We appreciate this, and endeavor to approach our relations likewise." To be sure, he left behind much food for thought for his Turkish hosts. …
When Cheney visited Baku last week on Wednesday on a mission single-mindedly aimed at isolating Russia in the region, he came across a few rude surprises. … The Azeri stance demonstrates that contrary to US media propaganda, Russia's firm stance in the Caucasus has enhanced its prestige and standing in the post-Soviet space. The CSTO at its meeting in Moscow on September 5 strongly endorsed the Russian position on the conflict with Georgia. Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin undertook a highly significant visit to Tashkent on September 1-2 aimed at boosting Russian-Uzbek understanding on regional security. … But in tangible terms, what gives utmost satisfaction to Moscow is that Azerbaijan has reacted to the Caucasus tensions and the temporary closure of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline by pumping its oil exports to Europe instead via the Soviet-era Baku-Novorossiysk pipeline. The dramatic irony of Baku overnight switching from a US-sponsored oil pipeline bypassing Russia to a Soviet-era pipeline that runs through the Russian heartland couldn't have been lost on Cheney. … The complete failure of Cheney's mission to Baku would appear to have come as a rude awakening to Washington that Moscow has effectively blunted the Bush administration's gunboat diplomacy in the Black Sea."
M K Bhadrakumar was a career diplomat in the Indian Foreign Service. His assignments included the Soviet Union, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Germany, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Kuwait and Turkey.
Tags für diesen Artikel: abchasien, armenien, aserbeidjan, china, collective security treaty organization, csto, georgien, kasachstan, kirgisien, krise, russland, sco, shanghai cooperation organization, südossetien, türkei, usbekistan, weissrussland, zentralasien
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